China's Potential Invasion to Taiwan: Strategic Interests and Implications

September 10, 2023

The Taiwan Strait, a narrow body of water separating China and Taiwan, has long been a focal point of tension and geopolitical intrigue. Taiwan, which considers itself a sovereign nation, stands in contrast to China's view, which regards Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. Multiple factors, ranging from foreign exchange reserves to strategic dominance in the South China Sea, make the Taiwan issue more than a matter of territorial integrity for China. Delving deeper, this article will explore the key reasons why China might consider making a move on Taiwan.

1. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Taiwan possesses a formidable foreign exchange reserve, making it one of the world's top reserve holders. By controlling Taiwan, China could potentially enhance its economic muscle, consolidating its position as a global economic powerhouse. This acquisition would further help stabilize China's own currency and give it greater leverage in global financial markets.

2. Electoral Dynamics: China has been watchful of Taiwan's internal politics, particularly the elections. A pro-independence leadership in Taiwan could push for stronger international recognition, making reunification more challenging. By acting before such leadership solidifies its position, China might hope to preempt any long-term shifts in Taiwan's political landscape that could move it further from Beijing's grasp.

3. Dominance in the Semiconductor Industry: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world's largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry. Its domination in the production of advanced microchips is unmatched. Likewise, Foxconn, another Taiwanese company, stands as a key player in global electronics manufacturing. Securing these industries would not only bolster China's technological dominance but also its supply chain resilience, particularly given the increasing global competition and the technology wars that have been intensifying over the years.

4. Reunification to Stem the Spread of Democracy: From Beijing's perspective, Taiwan represents not only a "renegade province" but also an alternative Chinese model based on democratic values. Taiwan's continued existence as a vibrant democracy could inspire and embolden pro-democracy movements within mainland China. By reunifying Taiwan, Beijing might hope to quash such sentiments and project the supremacy of its own political model.

5. Strategic Consolidation of the South China Sea: Taiwan plays a crucial role in China's ambitions in the South China Sea. By controlling Taiwan, China would be in a stronger position to exert dominance over the entirety of the South China Sea, a key global trade route and a region rich in resources. This would further bolster China's territorial claims against other regional actors and solidify its position as the predominant power in the Indo-Pacific.

The stakes are high when it comes to the Taiwan issue. China's potential move on Taiwan would be driven by a combination of economic, political, and strategic considerations. Such a move would not only reshape the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific but would also have profound implications for global trade, technology, and the broader international order. As the world watches, it's clear that the Taiwan Strait remains one of the most critical flashpoints in global geopolitics.